When the interstellar object known as 3I/ATLAS was first detected in July last year, it quickly escaped the quiet, technical orbit usually reserved for distant comets. It was only the third confirmed visitor from outside the Solar System, but its behavior invited far more attention than its predecessors. Unusual color changes, abrupt variations in speed, the presence of both a tail and an anti-tail, and later a precisely measured 16.16-hour cycle of brightening and dimming combined to make it unusually conspicuous.Into that scientific uncertainty rushed far louder narratives. Online forums linked the object to long-circulating prophecies attributed to Baba Vanga, which are often retrofitted to contemporary events, with some online chatter claiming she had predicted contact with extraterrestrials by the end of 2025, while some commentators framed 3I/ATLAS as a possible alien probe. The official position from NASA never wavered. The agency said the object was a natural comet, posed no threat to Earth, and would pass at a safe distance.
That clarity, however, did not close the argument.
Avi Loeb and the case for not ruling anything out
Among the most prominent dissenting voices has been Avi Loeb, the Harvard astrophysicist who has repeatedly argued that scientists should not dismiss unconventional explanations too quickly. Loeb has said there is a “30–40% chance” that 3I/ATLAS is not a naturally formed object and has pointed to features that, in his words, “could be related to a power supply that is not natural, that is technological in origin, some kind of an engine.”He has gone further, describing the object as “potentially hostile” and ranking it as a four on his self-devised “Loeb scale”, where zero represents an ordinary space rock and ten would indicate confirmed artificial origin. Loeb has also written about interstellar objects as possible carriers of life-forming materials, a speculative idea known as directed panspermia, though he has acknowledged this remains outside the scientific consensus.Late last year, Loeb suggested that the true nature of 3I/ATLAS might become clear by Christmas. That date passed without revelation, and with no sign of alien technology or intent, public attention largely moved on. Loeb, however, did not.
The CIA ‘s Glomar response
In a recent post on his Medium blogLoeb highlighted a response issued by the Central Intelligence Agency after a Freedom of Information Act request was submitted by UFO researcher John Greenewald Jr. The request sought any assessments or records relating to 3I/ATLAS.The CIA’s reply stated that it could “neither deny nor confirm the existence or nonexistence of records” connected to the interstellar object, adding that “the fact of the existence or nonexistence of such records is itself currently and properly classified.” The wording is a textbook example of what is known as a Glomar response, a deliberately non-committal position designed to avoid revealing whether sensitive material exists at all.Loeb described the reply as “surprising”, given that NASA officials had stated decisively at a November 19, 2025 press conference that 3I/ATLAS was “definitely a comet of natural origin”. If that conclusion was universally accepted within government and academia, he asked, why would even the existence of CIA records be considered classified?In his blog post, Loeb offered his own interpretation. He suggested that some officials may have wanted to independently verify that 3I/ATLAS was not a so-called black swan event, a rare but high-impact occurrence whose consequences would vastly outweigh its low probability. By that logic, even an extremely unlikely threat would merit quiet monitoring.“This is a wise policy for mitigating societal unrest or instability of financial markets at a time when the reality of a black swan event is still regarded as highly unlikely,” Loeb wrote, arguing that public confirmation of an intelligence review could itself trigger unnecessary alarm.
