NEW DELHI: Bihar’s assembly election results have delivered a sweeping win for the NDA government. The victory itself was no surprise, with exit polls already predicting a clear return to power for the National Democratic Alliance.What truly stood out, however, was not the win but the massive scale of the political shakeup that gave NDA a landslide victory, pushing its tally to a whopping 206 seats, in the 243-member assembly.
The final numbers soared well beyond every exit poll estimate, highlighting once again how unpredictable Bihar can be. It also brings back a familiar question: just how accurate are exit polls?
Exit polls predicted victory — but not a political earthquake
- Axis My India had predicted NDA’s share to land at 121 to 141 seats, expecting the Mahagathbandhan to get anywhere from 98 to 118 seats.
- Today’s Chanakya went a little further, offering a bullish 160 (+/–12) for the NDA, with the opposition capped at 77 (+/–13).
- Matrize projected 147–167 seats for the ruling alliance while Mahagathbandhan was expected to land at 70–90 seats.
- People’s Pulse gave NDA 133–159 seats and 87 to 102 seats for the Mahagathbandhan.
- JVC, DVC Research, Polstrat and People’s Insight all held the NDA somewhere between the mid-130s and mid-150s.
A poll of polls offered an average estimate of 148 seats, almost 60 seats less than the actual figures for NDA.Across surveys, the NDA’s lead looked strong, but bounded. Even most of the optimistic figures fell short of the whopping 200 mark that the NDA comfortably crossed.
Exit polls underestimate NDA wave
Ahead of counting, most agencies were united on one point: the NDA would return to power. But the thing with Bihar is that the exit polls are often proved wrong. Five years ago, in the 2020 elections, almost every exit poll predicted a clear victory for the Mahagathbandhan. But the final result told a very different story as the NDA crossed the majority mark with 125 seats. Meanwhile Mahagathbandhan ran out of green signals after winning 110 seats, an outcome that only a handful of agencies had anticipated.Go back 10 years and the picture gets more complex. In the 2015 elections, Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad Yadav fought side by side as a part of the Mahagathbandhan. At the time most of the polls predicted a comfortable 155 seat win for the NDA while Mahagathbandhan was expected to land at just 83. However, the actual results completely reversed the trend, raising questions about the accuracy of the polls. Mahagathbandhan swept the state with 178 seats while NDA candidates won just 58.The 2025 results extend this legacy. Pollsters got the direction right, but the magnitude wildly undermined.
